Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, August 15th

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative following mixed economic news. Stocks are fairly calm with the Dow up 87 points and the Nasdaq down 40 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (4.29%), which with yesterday’s late losses should cause an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point.

3/32


Bonds


30 yr - 4.29%

87


Dow


44,998

40


NASDAQ


21,669

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High


Negative


Retail Sales

The first of this morning’s three economic reports was July’s Retail Sales report at 8:30 AM ET this morning. It revealed a 0.5% rise in consumer spending following June’s upwardly revised 0.9% increase. If more costly and volatile auto transactions are excluded, sales rose 0.3%. Both headline numbers pegged forecasts, but both were also revised higher for June by 0.3%. These numbers mean consumers are continuing to spend money, fueling economic growth. They aren’t strong enough to alter the likelihood of the Fed cutting key rates next month, but could play a role in the Fed’s debate process by supporting the theory the economy is still strengthening despite tariffs and where key rates currently are. Cutting rates when the economy is growing on its own raises the threat of inflation flaring.

Medium


Positive


Industrial Production

July's Industrial Production report was posted at 9:15 AM ET this morning, showing a 0.1% decline in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. This was a bit weaker than expected as market participants predicted production would be unchanged from June’s level. Because this was just a minor variance in a moderately relevant report, the news had had little impact on this morning’s trading.

Medium


Positive


Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

Closing this week’s calendar was August’s preliminary version of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET. They announced a reading of 58.6 that was a decline from last month’s 61.7 and well below forecasts of 62.2. The lower reading means surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial and employment situations this month than last month. That is favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually translates into softer consumer spending numbers in the future.

Medium


Unknown


FOMC Meeting Minutes

Next week doesn’t have any highly important data scheduled like some of this week’s reports. There are only three monthly economic reports set for release and they are all considered to be moderately important at best. In addition to the data, we also have a Treasury auction that may come into play one afternoon. Likely to drive trading the most next week are a couple of Fed-related events, which include the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting Wednesday and a speech by Chairman Powell at the annual Fed Jackson Hole conference Friday. Monday has nothing of importance scheduled, leaving weekend headlines to influence rates as the week begins. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.